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What storm activity can we expect in 2020?

On April 2, 2020, the Tropical Meteorology Project Forecast from Colorado State University advised: “We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.”  Below is their forecast for Named Storms, Hurricanes, and Major Hurricanes.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2020

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date 
2 April, 2020
Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 80
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 8
Hurricane DAys (HD) (24.2) 35
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 4
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 9

Updated forecasts will be released on June 4, July 7, and August 6.  You can read the full April 2, 2020 report here:  https://tropical.colostate.edu/

However, how does the 2020 forecast compare to what happened in 2019?  Below are the results from the 4 forecasting periods and the actual activity.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2019

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date
4 April, 2019
Issue Date
4 June, 2019
Issue Date
9 July, 2019
Issue Date
5 August, 2019
Observed 2019 Activity
Thru 11/27
Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 13 14 14 14 18
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 50 55 55 55 68.5
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 5 6 6 7 6
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 16 20 20 20 23.25
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 2 2 2 2 3
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 4 5 5 5 10

NFS Is Prepared

NFS maintains a steady state of readiness to address increased flooding activity and assist affected customers.

Just like great teams practice to improve their game, at NFS we practice to improve our preparedness for taking care of customers through CAT Dry Runs or simulations.

In 2020, we have conducted two simulations, each with its own unique scenario.  The most recent on April 7, 2020, simulated a 10,000-claim event in the Carolinas and Virginia.  An added measure of preparedness was tested as it was announced each department would only have access to 40% of their normal staff and internal resources and 5% of their external resources.  Collectively the team did an excellent job responding to the situation and demonstrated solid contingency plans to account for the unexpected.

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